Explanation of Parameters

Date is the base date of the prediction, stated in UTC, also known as GMT (Greenwich Mean Time), or Zulu. The date ranges are displayed on individual prediction pages.

Location is the general location of the prediction. Once again, the ranges of location are displayed on individual pages.

Mag. is the magnitude of the predicted earthquake, in Richter Magnitude, unless otherwise noted (Mw = Moment Scale). Magnitude ranges of predictions are also available on the individual pages.

Prob. is the probability -- likelihood of an earthquake of the specified magnitude occurring within the target area in the time specified, based upon past regional seismicity. On this page, the value displayed is the probability of the real earthquake occurring when and where it actually did (and its actual size), in relation to the prediction. The formula used to calculate probability is similar to that used at Zhonghao Shou's Short-Term Earthquake Prediction Website and is as follows (slightly modified):

First, select the earthquakes whose epicenters are within the predicted area and whose sizes are within the predicted magnitude range from a certain earthquake database. Second, divide the period covered by the database into time intervals of the same length as the predicted time span. Designate the sum of all intervals as A. Finally calculate the probability P =1-(#of earthquakes)/A

Conf. is the confidence level of the predictor, of the earthquake occurring within the specified limits. Note: there can not be a 100% confidence level.

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