Earthquake Prediction by Ian Montaño

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Past Predictions

Includes all past predictions since this site was first launched in October 1998

Predicted Earthquake
|
Actual Earthquake

Date/Time

Location

Mag.
|
Date/Time

Location

Mag.
|
Probability*

8.11.1998

09:06

Papua New Guinea

5.0
|
(difference of 6 hours)

(difference of 150 miles)

5.5
|
0.46%

(1 in 217)

11.4.1998

00:46

Fiji Islands

6.5+
|
11.5.1998

Fiji Islands

5.4
|
2.80%

(1 in 36)

12.8.1998

Western U.S.

5.5
|
12.7.1998

CA/NV Border Region

3.7
|
30.24%

(1 in 3)

12.17.1998

12:00

CA/NV Border Region

4.5
|
12.17.1998

CA/NV Border region

4.3
|
0.40%

(1 in 250)

12.30.1998

Mid-Atlantic Ridge

5.5
|
12.28.1998

North Atlantic

5.5
|
0.02%

(1 in 5000)

1.31.1999

Manila, Philippines

5.5
|
1.31.1999

16:51

Honshu, Japan

5.1
|
5.14%

(1/20)

2.16.1999

16:33

Diamantina Trench

6.0
|
2.16.1999

12:19

South Indian Ocean

4.8
|
< 0.01%

(1 in 18868)

2.22.1999

20:54

Eastern Caribbean Islands Region

4.5
|
3.7.1999

18:01

Virgin Islands

4.5
|
2.43%

(1 in 41)

4.17.1999

05:23

West of Manila, Philippines

5.8
|
4.17.1999

05:12

South of Fiji Islands

5.0
|
0.50%

(1 in 199)

7.28.1999

11:32

Fiji Islands Region

3.5
|
7.28.1999

10:08

Fiji Islands Region

6.2
|
0.04%

(1 in 2299)

8.11.1999

Romania

6.5+
|
8.17.1999

00:01

Izmit, Turkey

7.8
|
0.37%

(1 in 270)

9.2.1999

15:37

Hawaii

4.5-5.5
|
8.25.1999

00:01

Hawaii

4.0
|
32.99%

(1 in 3)

My current success rate: 80%

*Probability is the likelihood of an earthquake of the specified magnitude occurring within the target area in the time specified, based upon past regional seismicity. On this page, the value displayed is the probability of the real earthquake occurring when and where it actually did (and its actual size), in relation to the prediction. The formula used to calculate probability is similar to that used at Zhonghao Shou's Short-Term Earthquake Prediction Website and is as follows (slightly modified):

First, select the earthquakes whose epicenters are within the predicted area and whose sizes are within the predicted magnitude range from a certain earthquake database. Second, divide the period covered by the database into time intervals of the same length as the predicted time span. Designate the sum of all intervals as A. Finally calculate the probability P =1-(#of earthquakes)/A

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Date/Time	Location	Mag.	\|	Date/Time	Location	Mag.	\|	Probability*
8.11.1998 09:06	Papua New Guinea	5.0	\|	(difference of 6 hours)	(difference of 150 miles)	5.5	\|	0.46% (1 in 217)
11.4.1998 00:46	Fiji Islands	6.5+	\|	11.5.1998	Fiji Islands	5.4	\|	2.80% (1 in 36)
12.8.1998	Western U.S.	5.5	\|	12.7.1998	CA/NV Border Region	3.7	\|	30.24% (1 in 3)
12.17.1998 12:00	CA/NV Border Region	4.5	\|	12.17.1998	CA/NV Border region	4.3	\|	0.40% (1 in 250)
12.30.1998	Mid-Atlantic Ridge	5.5	\|	12.28.1998	North Atlantic	5.5	\|	0.02% (1 in 5000)
1.31.1999	Manila, Philippines	5.5	\|	1.31.1999 16:51	Honshu, Japan	5.1	\|	5.14% (1/20)
2.16.1999 16:33	Diamantina Trench	6.0	\|	2.16.1999 12:19	South Indian Ocean	4.8	\|	< 0.01% (1 in 18868)
2.22.1999 20:54	Eastern Caribbean Islands Region	4.5	\|	3.7.1999 18:01	Virgin Islands	4.5	\|	2.43% (1 in 41)
4.17.1999 05:23	West of Manila, Philippines	5.8	\|	4.17.1999 05:12	South of Fiji Islands	5.0	\|	0.50% (1 in 199)
7.28.1999 11:32	Fiji Islands Region	3.5	\|	7.28.1999 10:08	Fiji Islands Region	6.2	\|	0.04% (1 in 2299)
8.11.1999	Romania	6.5+	\|	8.17.1999 00:01	Izmit, Turkey	7.8	\|	0.37% (1 in 270)
9.2.1999 15:37	Hawaii	4.5-5.5	\|	8.25.1999 00:01	Hawaii	4.0	\|	32.99% (1 in 3)