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January 13th
Earthquake
CENTRAL AMERICA
On Saturday, January 13, an earthquake of magnitude 7.6 struck just off the coast of El Salvador. The earthquake has claimed more than 250 lives, with hundreds still missing.
This earthquake was predicted on this website in August 2000. The region and magnitude criteria of the prediction match the El Salvador earthquake, while the date contains a 14-day error. This 14-day margin coincides with one-half of the current synodic month, the period of which fluctuates throughout the year. What this means is that the prediction was issued several days after a NEW moon while the actual earthquake occurred several days following a FULL moon. This phenomenon has been observed before, but thus far attempts at forecasting its occurrence have been less than successful. For this reason, I will be issuing TWO time periods for each earthquake unless specified otherwise in each prediction's individual report.
Further analysis of the El Salvador quake is still being conducted. Additional significant results will be reported here as soon as they become available. E-mail comments or questions to ian_montano@hotmail.com.
The following is the prediction posted August 6, 2000. This information is also available at
http://terremoto.8m.com/predict/122500.htm.
December 30,
2000
PRELIMINARY
PREDICTION ONLY
This earthquake prediction was posted on August 6, 2000. This earthquake prediction is based on a partial solar eclipse which occurs on the 25th of December. Although the current region of the prediction is somewhat vague (Central America), further data will be obtained in the upcoming months and any changes will be posted. The most probable dates for the earthquake lie 5-7 days after the eclipse. See map below for the area covered by this prediction. Please e-mail me at earthquake@mailcc.com if you have a text-only browser to receive a map. Please note that this information is still preliminary and subject to change, and will be updated when new data is available. If you would like to receive an e-mail when this or any other predictions are updated, you can subscribe to the mailing list.
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Date UTC |
Location |
Magnitude |
|
Predicted |
12.30.2000 |
Central America -- See Map |
7.3 |
|
Range |
within 3 days |
20°S - 15°N; 60° - 90°W |
6.5 - 7.5 |
Random-Chance Probability: 5.00%
Prediction Area: large green
rectangle incicates prediction area, red squares indicate more likely
areas
Maps assembled using Xerox PARC Map Server
E-Mail earthquake@mailcc.com